Independent analytical framework for Iranian regime architecture and transition dynamics.
Iran's political system is among the most opaque and misunderstood in the world. Western analysis consistently fails at the same points: it negotiates with pragmatists while eschatological hardliners hold veto power. It models the IRGC as a military organization when it functions as a parallel society bound by economic dependency. It treats regime survival rhetoric as bluster when it operates as institutional doctrine.
These are not intelligence failures. They are analytical framework failures. The information is available — in regime primary sources, in Farsi-language media, in the institutional architecture itself. What is missing is a structured framework that connects these sources to actionable understanding.
This project builds that framework.
The Iran Transition Baseline (ITB) maps how the regime actually works: constitutional architecture, security apparatus, economic structures, ideological machinery, factional dynamics, and the parallel society the IRGC has built. Eight pillars, twenty-two analytical modules, continuously updated.
The Iran Stress Architecture (ISA) identifies where the system breaks: analytical traps that catch Western policymakers, observations that reveal structural dynamics, and scenario modeling for transition pathways. Fourteen traps documented, thirty observations logged, twelve scenarios modeled.
Convergence Briefs translate framework findings into focused policy-relevant analysis. Thirteen published briefs plus supplementals, covering topics from the taqiyyah verification problem to the structural limits of a Pinochet-model alignment switch.
All outputs are published openly. PDF bundles are available as GitHub Releases.
Policy professionals and journalists who need analytical depth beyond the headline cycle. The briefs are written for this audience — each one isolates a specific structural problem and traces its implications.
Researchers and analysts who work on Iran, Middle East security, or transition dynamics. The full ITB/ISA framework provides a structured baseline that can be critiqued, extended, or challenged on its own terms.
Technical contributors who want to apply structured analytical methods to complex geopolitical problems. The project's AI-assisted workflow, epistemic framework, and build pipeline are documented and open for reuse. See Guide for Engineers.
Anyone who believes that rigorous, impartial analysis of how this regime works — and how it might change — should be publicly available rather than locked behind classification barriers or institutional paywalls.
This project maintains strict analytical discipline:
Factional neutrality. No allegiance to any faction, opposition group, or foreign government position. The test for every claim: what must be true regardless of who governs?
Epistemic tagging. Every analytical claim is tagged by evidence quality — Fact, Inference, Uncertain, or Speculation — with explicit confidence bands. Readers always know how much weight a conclusion can bear.
Source discipline. Regime primary sources over secondary reporting. Farsi-language sources over English translations. A five-tier source taxonomy prevents garbage in, garbage out. Wikipedia is excluded as a primary or corroborating source for Iran content.
Transparency. The methodology, the AI-assisted workflow, the analytical instructions, and the data pipeline are all public. If the framework has a flaw, anyone can find it.
For a detailed description of the analytical approach, see Methodology.
| Component | Status |
|---|---|
| Iran Transition Baseline (ITB) | 8 pillars, 22 modules — active development |
| Iran Stress Architecture (ISA) | 14 traps, 30 observations, 12 scenarios — active |
| Convergence Briefs | 13 published + supplementals — active |
| Analytical Variables | 86 tracked across 5 tables |
| Research Gaps | 57 registered, 49 open |
Read the briefs. Start with the Executive Summary or download the latest PDF from Releases.
Submit feedback, sources, or corrections. Public discussion: GitHub Discussions. Private submissions: irantransitionproject.org/submit. See Submissions Protocol.
Contribute analytically. Persian-language source integration, subject matter review, and methodological critique are the highest-priority needs. See Contributing.
Use the framework. Engineers and developers can fork this repository and build their own analytical projects using the same pipeline. See Guide for Engineers. Traditional analysts can engage with the methodology without touching code. See Guide for Analysts.
This project uses Claude (Anthropic) as a research and maintenance tool. Two instruction files govern its behavior — both are public and open to critique:
CLAUDE_CHAT_INSTRUCTIONS.md— analytical session protocolCLAUDE_CODE_INSTRUCTIONS.md— repository maintenance protocol
AI assistance is a tool, not a source. All claims require sourcing, epistemic tagging, and factional neutrality per the project's analytical standards. For details, see Methodology.
- Published briefs: hmehr.substack.com
- Website: irantransitionproject.org
- Contact: admin@irantransitionproject.org
- License: CC BY-SA 4.0 — open for reuse with attribution. Alternative licensing available for policy institutions with copyleft constraints.
For technical documentation (repository structure, build pipeline, data schemas), see Architecture.